B
No.4-4银卡 · B 级证据
估工期时按过去同类任务的实际耗时估，不按计划推
说人话
学生估自己 33.9 天写完论文，实际用了 55.5 天，只有 29.7% 的人按自己估的时间做完。另一组被要求先回想上次同类的事花了多久再估，按时完成的比例从 29.3% 升到 60.0%。
收益 · 换回什么
学生预计 33.9 天完成论文，实际用了 55.5 天。只有 29.7% 的人按自己的估计按时完成。研究者要求另一组人先把过去的经历和眼下这件事挂上钩，再去估。这一组按时完成的比例，从对照组的 29.3% 升到 60.0%。把工期往少了估的那种乐观，在这一组身上不再出现。
来源 · 3 条链接Buehler, R., Griffin, D., &
Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366–381. doi.org/…
Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). From Nobel Prize to project management: Getting risks right. Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5–15. doi.org/…
Halkjelsvik, T., &
Jørgensen, M. (2012). From origami to software development: A review of studies on judgment-based predictions of performance time. Psychological Bulletin, 138(2), 238–271. doi.org/…
Ross, M. (1994). Exploring the "planning fallacy": Why people underestimate their task completion times. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 67(3), 366–381. doi.org/…
Flyvbjerg, B. (2006). From Nobel Prize to project management: Getting risks right. Project Management Journal, 37(3), 5–15. doi.org/…
Halkjelsvik, T., &
Jørgensen, M. (2012). From origami to software development: A review of studies on judgment-based predictions of performance time. Psychological Bulletin, 138(2), 238–271. doi.org/…